USE OF REMOTE SENSING AND MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
|
| kw = 0.17w | for w <= 3.6 | (1a) | ||
| kw = 2.85w - 9.65 | |
for 3.6 < w <= 13 | |
(1b) |
| kw = 5.9w - 49.3 | |
for w > 13 | |
(1c) |
These equations must be rescaled to apply for DMS and different Sc. Liss and Merlivat /18/ assume that kw is proportional to Sc-2/3 , for wind speeds less than 3.6 ms-1 , and Sc-1/2 for higher wind speeds. Rescaling equations (1) and enforcing piecewise continuity at the wind speed boundaries gives,
| kw = a 0.17w | |
for w <= 3.6 | |
(2a) |
| kw = b ( 2.85w - 10.26 ) + 0.612 a | |
for 3.6 < w <= 13 | |
(2b) |
| kw = b ( 5.90w - 49.91 ) + 0.612 a | |
for w > 13 | |
(2c) |
a = (600/Sc)2/3 and b = (600/Sc)1/2.
For a given gas, Sc varies with water temperature, decreasing as the temperature increases. The dependence of Sc on sea surface temperature (SST) for DMS was presented graphically by Erickson et al. [1990] and a cubic polynomial has been fitted to that data for use in the model,
| Sc = 3628.5 - 234.58(SST) + 7.8601 (SST)² - 0.1148 (SST)³ | (3) |
Sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean southwest of Cape Grim has been modelled as a periodic function with a period of one year,
| SST = 0.5{( SSTmax + SSTmin ) + (SSTmax - SSTmin) cos [(t - tm) PI/180)]} | (4) |
where SSTmax and SSTmin are the maximum and minimum annual temperatures, t the time in Julian days and tm the day on which the maximum temperature occurs. From air temperature data recorded at Cape Grim, the maximum and minimum sea surface temperatures are estimated to be 14.6°C and 9.4°C, respectively, with the maximum occurring on day 17. Thus from (3), Sc varies from a value of 1522 (at 14.6°C) to 2022 (at 9.4°C).
Photosynthesis
The original GMSK model formulation assumed that phytoplankton growth was not limited by either light or temperature, an appropriate simplification for predictions on the time scale of a bloom episode but not valid when seasonal variability is to be investigated. Assuming that both availability of light and the ambient temperature can effect the specific nutrient uptake rate, m, at any given time - the multiplicative model /19/,
| m = VN RL RT | (5) |
where VN (h-1) is the nitrogen-specific nutrient uptake rate following the Michaelis-Menten form given in the original GMSK formulation, and RL and RT are dimensionless light and temperature limitation coefficients, respectively.
Field measurements suggest nitrate levels in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean are typically very high in late winter 11.5 mM and drop to 2.1 mM by the end of the austral summer. The nitrate half-saturation concentration Ks varies with algal species size and ambient nutrient status, however oceanic species tend to have values in the range 0.1 to 1.0 mM with higher values (>4 mM) in coastal and eutrophic waters /20/. A Ks value of 1.0mM was used in the GMSK model and in the absence of better taxonomic data has been left unchanged.
A radiation model /21/ has been calibrated with meteorological data on cloudiness and surface radiation collected at Cape Grim and used to compute the incident solar irradiance at the sea surface Is, in the range 350-700 nm (photosynthetically active radiation - PAR). The ratio of PAR to total incoming solar radiation has been estimated to be in the range 0.42 to 0.48 for mid to high latitudes /22/.
In the Subantarctic ocean the mixed layer depth varies seasonally from about 100 m in summer to over 400 m in winter. The euphotic zone depth is fairly constant at around 90m for the whole year. For simplicity the euphotic zone averaged irradiance Ie has been used, assuming that light is exponentially attenuated with depth, and that the irradiance at the bottom of euphotic zone (z = Ze) is 1% of the surface value, thus the depth-integrated irradiance is
Ze
Ie = (Is / Ze ) | e -kz dz = 0.21 Is (6)
0
Light limitation of phytoplankton growth may be modelled in a number of ways. For example, Smith /23/ has suggested,
| RL = P / Pmax = (I / Ik )[1 + (I/Ik)2 ] -0.5 | (7a) |
where P is the gross photosynthesis rate, Pmax the maximum photosynthesis rate, and Ik the saturating irradiance /24/. Steele /25/ used a formulation which includes photoinhibition at high light intensities,
| RL = (I / Iopt) exp{ 1 - I/Iopt } | (7b) |
where Iopt is the light intensity at which Pmax occurs.
There is a clear temperature effect on the growth rate of phytoplankton with the maximum rate of growth roughly doubling every 100C increase in sea temperature /26/. The limitation due to temperature is given by,
| RT = (mo/mmax) exp(0.063T) | (8) |
where mo is 0.84 day-1 and T is the temperature in degrees Celsius. For the maximum sea temperature in the study window (14.6°C), the maximal growth rate mmax is 2.1 day-1 . By comparison , for winter sea temperature of 9.4°C, the growth limitation RT is 0.72.
Remote Sensing Data
Chlorophyll pigment concentration for the Southern Ocean southwest of Cape Grim was derived from archival Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) data. The CZCS 1978-1986 monthly composite archive was processed for the 1000 x 1000 km study window 41 - 51°S and 133.3 - 143.2°E and the results for spatially averaged chlorophyll-like pigment concentration are shown in Figure 2a and 2b. While there is no well-defined peak in the seasonal cycle, the minimum value in the northern section occurs over August to September while in the southern half the minimum occurs in June. In both sections variance is high throughout the year except during August and September. The monthly mean pigment concentration is in the range 0.2 - 0.3 mg chl m-3 during the December to March period.
While there is little data on the seasonal cycles of phytoplankton species in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, it appears that diatoms are an important component of the total flora, especially further south. McTaggart and Burton /11/ report that coccolithophores form a significant portion of the total phytoplankton community north of the Antarctic Convergence (53°S).
Fig. 2. Monthly average pigment concentration as derived
from CZCS 1978-86 composited data (a) 410S - 460S (b) 460S - 510S
Model Predictions
Wind speed records collected at Cape Grim were statistically analysed and the monthly mean speed E(w) and standard deviation s are given in Table 1.
| . | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| E(w) | 11.2 | 9.19 | 8.97 | 8.13 | 8.17 | 7.33 | 7.72 | 7.91 | 8.67 | 9.83 | 9.22 | 10.7 |
| s | 4.08 | 4.22 | 4.08 | 3.83 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.80 | 4.11 | 5.02 | 4.72 | 4.33 | 4.42 |
The wind data were used to compute the variation in transfer velocity over a year and the results plotted in Figure 3. The transfer velocity varies from a maximum value of 3.4 m d-1 in January to a minimum in July of 1.6 m d-1. From equations (2) it is clear that kw is directly proportional to wind speed and inversely proportional to Schmidt number, which is a minimum in January. Wind speed is a maximum in January and the combined effects of high wind and warm sea temperatures result in a maximum in kw during summer.
Erickson et al. /28/ computed global DMS transfer velocity based on global climate model generated wind and temperature fields. Interestingly, their predictions for the Southern Ocean near Cape Grim are higher in winter ( 6 m d-1 ) than in summer (3.6 m d-1), although their summer prediction is very close to that presented here. Given that our findings were based on locally derived data on wind and air temperature, the winter DMS flux given by Erickson et al. may be seriously overestimated.
Fig. 3 Predicted variation in transfer velocity based on wind speed data collected at Cape Grim
The extended GMSK model was integrated forward in time from early October (Julian day 275) through to mid-May (Julian day 500). We have assumed that the oceanic mixed layer during spring/summer is 100 m deep. The biotic state variables were all initialised to arbitrarily low values and the sulfur species (DMSP and DMS) were initialised to zero. For the high nitrate values typical of the Southern Ocean in early spring nitrogen is unlikely to limit phytoplankton growth so that phytoplankton growth rate is largely controlled by light and temperature.
Model predictions are known to be very sensitive to the algal cell DMSP content. Assuming that the phytoplankton community is dominated by diatoms and coccolithophores, we choose a S(DMSP):N cell ratio of 0.3 /13/. The depth-dependent model parameters were re-scaled to the 100m MLD and are given in the Appendix.
Several model runs were carried out and typical results for the growth of phytoplankton and the production of dissolved DMS are shown in Figure 4 a,b.
Fig. 4 Predicted variation in (a) phytoplankton biomass and (b) dissolved DMS
Gabric et al. /13/ have noted that the model predictions are very sensitive to the specification of the phytoplankton maximum nutrient uptake rate (k23) with both the timing and magnitude of DMS peaks being affected. This parameter will be species dependent and given the large area of ocean that can affect DMS measurements made at Cape Grim and the likely presence of a number of species in different stages of growth, the model predictions are clearly only an indicator of the actual cycle in DMS.
The phytoplankton growth follows a cyclical pattern with period of about 40 days and a gradual decline in the peak during autumn. DMS peaks ensue the algal peaks with a lag of about 1-2 days and follow a similar decline. DMS levels remain high for at least 10 days after phytoplankton have been completely grazed. The predicted mixed layer peak phytoplankton concentrations vary from almost 5000 to 800 mg Nm-2 .
In order to compare the model predictions with the pigment concentrations detected in the CZCS imagery, a currency conversion from the model units of nitrogen to chlorophyll is required. Carbon:chlorophyll ratios can vary during the bloom cycle and also across algal taxonomic group. /20/.Assuming a C:Chl ratio of 50 and a C:N of 6, the model predictions correspond to chlorophyll concentrations in the range 6 to 1 mg m-3. Mixed layer peak DMS concentrations vary from 19 to 4 mg S(DMS)m-2 which correspond to the range 6 to 1.2 nM. This is similar to the range measured by Bates et al. /8/ in the North Pacific and in the Baltic /9/.
Model predictions for the sea-to-air flux of DMS are shown in Figure 5 together with independent estimates of the monthly average flux made by Ayers et al. /29/ using the Cape Grim atmospheric measurements and data on the rate of gaseous DMS removal through reaction with the hydroxyl radical. Given the limitation that our model assumes a biologically homogeneous ocean, the correspondence between the two sets of predictions is encouraging. The flux increases toward a maximum at the end of the year and then decreases in autumn which is identical to the trend in atmospheric DMS at Cape Grim.
Fig. 5 Model predictions for DMS flux
It should be noted that the model predictions are based on the assumption of a spatially uniform study region. Clearly this is a gross simplification given the extent of ocean which will affect DMS measurements at Cape Grim. The phytoplankton population over such a large area will likely be heterogeneous, implying different cell DMSP content, and in different stages of the growth cycle. Thus, while the flux predictions display a similar periodicity to the dissolved DMS concentration, the effect of heterogeneity in the phytoplankton assemblage and asynchronous blooming would be to fill in the troughs and give a more uniform flux over time as is indeed found in the experimental record.
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Definition of Model State Variables and Fluxes
| X1 | phytoplankton , mg Nm-2 |
| X2 | bacteria, mg Nm-2 |
| X3 | zooflagellates, mg Nm-2 |
| X4 | large protozoa, mg Nm-2 |
| X5 | micro and mesozooplankton, mg Nm-2 |
| X6 | dissolved inorganic nitrogen, mg Nm-2 |
| X7 | dissolved DMSP, mg S(DMSP) m-2 |
| X8 | dissolved DMS, mg S(DMS) m-2 |
| F12 | bacterial decomposition of phytoplankton, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F14 | ingestion of phytoplankton by large protozoa, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F15 | ingestion of phytoplankt. by micro-mesozooplankton,mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F17 | excretion of DMSP by phytoplankton, mgS(DMSP) m-2d-1 |
| F18 | excretion/metabolism of DMS by phytoplankt, mgS(DMS)m2d-1 |
| F1W | sedimentation of phytoplankt below euphotic zone, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F23 | ingestion of bacteria by zooflagellates, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F26 | excretion of DIN by bacteria, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F34 | ingestion of zooflagellates by large protozoa, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F36 | excretion of DIN by zooflagellates, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F45 | ingestion of protozoa by zooplankton, mg Nm-2 d-1 |
| F46 | excretion of DIN by large protozoa, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F47 | excretion of DMSP by large protozoa, mg S(DMSP) m-2d-1 |
| F56 | excretion of DIN by micro and mesozooplankton, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F57 | excretion of DMSP by zooplankton, mg S(DMSP) m-2d-1 |
| F5W | sedimentation and export of zooplankton, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F61 | DIN uptake by phytoplankton, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F62 | DIN uptake by bacteria, mg Nm-2d-1 |
| F72 | DMSP biodegradation and uptake by bacteria, mg S(DMSP) m-2d-1 |
| F78 | Conversion of DMSP to DMS in water column, mgS(DMSP)m-2d-1 |
| F82 | DMS uptake/consumption by bacteria, mg S(DMS) m-2d-1 |
| F8W | DMS photo-oxidation, adsorption/sedimentation, mgS(DMS)m-2d-1 |
| F8A | DMS ventilation to atmosphere, mg S(DMS) m-2d-1 |
*Fij is the flow between compartments Xi and Xj (A is atmosphere; W is water column)
Model Equations
| dX1/dt | = | F61 - F12 - F14 - F15 - F1W |
| dX2/dt | = | F12 + F62 - F23 - F26 + a1 F82 + a2 F72 |
| dX3/dt | = | F23 - F36 - F34 |
| dX4/d t | = | F34 + F14 - F45 - F46 |
| dX5/dt | = | F45 + F15 - F56 - F5W |
| dX6/dt | = | F26 + F36 + F46 + F56 - F61 - F62 |
| dX7/dt/dt | = | F17 + F47 + F57 - F78 - F72 |
| dX8/dt | = | F18 + b F78 - F 82 - F8W - F8A |
| With |
||
| F12 | = | k1 X2 [ 1 - exp(-k2 X 1) ] |
| F14 | = | k3 X1 X4 |
| F15 | = | k4 X1 X5 |
| F17 | = | k5 X1 g |
| F18 | = | b g k6 X1 |
| F1W | = | k7 X1 |
| F23 | = | k8 X3 [ 1 - exp(-k9 X2) ] |
| F26 | = | k10 X2 + k11 [ F62 + F12 ] |
| F34 | = | k12 X3 X4 |
| F36 | = | k13 X3 + k14 F23 |
| F45 | = | k15 X4 X5 |
| F46 | = | k16 X4 + k17 [ F34 + F14 ] |
| F47 | = | k18 X4 g |
| F56 | = | k19 X5 + k20 [ F15 + F45 ] |
| F57 | = | k21 X5 g |
| F5W | = | k22 F56 + k32 X5 |
| F61 | = | k23 X1 [ 1 - exp(-k24 X6) ] |
| F62 | = | k25 X2 [ 1 - exp(-k26 X6) ] |
| F72 | = | k31 X7 |
| F78 | = | k27 X7 |
| F82 | = | k28 X8 | F8W | = | k29 X8 |
| F8A | = | k30 X8 |
Currency conversion factors a1 and a2 are given by 0.15 and 0.37,
respectively, and g is the S(DMSP):N ratio for phytoplankton (species dependent ).
Model Parameters for a 100-m mixed layer
| Value | Pathway* | Units | |
| k1 | 4.5 | P-B* | day-1 |
| k2 | 4.6e-4 | P-B | m2 mg N-1 |
| k3 | 2.6e-3 | P-LP | m2 mgN-1d-1 |
| k4 | 1.2e-3 | P-Z | m2 mgN-1d-1 |
| k5 | 0.01 | P-DMSP | day-1 |
| k6 | 0.0085 | P-DMS | day-1 |
| k7 | 0.15 | P Sinking | day-1 |
| k8 | 17 | B-F | day-1 |
| k9 | 1.38e-3 | B-F | m2 mg N-1 |
| k10 | 0.07 | B-N | day-1 |
| k11 | 0.63 | B-N | ... |
| k12 | 0.0156 | F-LP | m2 mgN-1d-1 |
| k13 | 0.05 | F-N | day-1 |
| k14 | 0.65 | F-N | ... |
| k15 | 1.2e-3 | LP-Z | m2 mgN-1d-1 |
| k16 | 0.05 | LP-N | day-1 |
| k17 | 0.65 | LP-N | ... |
| k18 | 0.01 | LP-DMSP | day-1 |
| k19 | 0.05 | Z-N | day-1 |
| k20 | 0.40 | Z-N | ... |
| k21 | 0.01 | Z-DMSP | day-1 |
| k22 | 0.15 | Z sinking | ... |
| k23 | 0.9 | N-P | day-1 |
| k24 | 5e-4 | N-P | m2 mg N-1 |
| k25 | 0.9 | N-B | day-1 |
| k26 | 9.24e-3 | N-B | m2 mg N-1 |
| k27 | 0.5 | DMSP-DMS | day-1 |
| k28 | 0.95 | DMS-B | day-1 |
| k29 | 0.27 | DMS photo-ox | day-1 |
| k30 | see text | DMS - atmos | day-1 |
| k31 | 1.0 | DMSP-B | day-1 |
| k32 | 0.05 | Z export | day-1 |
